The Delegates Lounge

A Maritime Expert on Perils at Sea: Undercurrents Part 3

• The Delegates Lounge LLC • Season 3 • Episode 5

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Welcome to the third edition of "Undercurrents," an ongoing series in The Delegates Lounge podcast about the oceans and seas that unite us, and sometimes, divide us. 

In this episode, we're continuing our conversation with Michelle Wiese Bockmann, a former longtime analyst with Lloyd's List, one of the world’s oldest continuously running journals that has provided shipping news from London for centuries. 

Beneath, above, and at the surface of global shipping lanes, a new era of maritime threats is emerging with potentially devastating consequences for world trade, communications, and security. 

Our conversation with Michelle plunges immediately into the rise of cable cutting incidents in the Baltic Sea, where vessels have severed critical undersea infrastructure connecting nations and communications networks. She describes how difficult it is to prove sabotage in these cases, even as NATO deploys artificial intelligence to track suspicious vessel movements. The shadowy "dark fleet" of vessels operating outside international norms presents a particular challenge, with ships engaged in deceptive practices that make monitoring difficult.

Drone warfare has changed maritime security calculations. From the Houthi attacks in the Red Sea using unmanned explosive boats to targeted strikes against commercial vessels, these relatively inexpensive weapons have forced shipping companies to abandon crucial trade routes. The economic impact is staggering. Rerouting around Africa's Cape of Good Hope adds approximately one million dollars in fuel costs per container ship journey, costs ultimately shouldered by consumers worldwide.

Most concerning is the growing inability of international governance frameworks to address these evolving threats. The United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS) was drafted long before modern drone warfare and cable cutting incidents, while Michelle says the International Maritime Organization has become paralyzed by geopolitical divisions. As she sees it, the United States has retreated from its traditional leadership role in these forums, leaving critical environmental and security decisions in limbo.

From the Arctic's opening passages to the complexities of Panama Canal operations, this conversation offers rare insights into the vulnerabilities of our ocean-dependent global economy. Join us for this essential exploration of maritime security challenges that affect everything from the products on our store shelves to the internet connections powering our digital lives.

Subscribe to The Delegates Lounge for more critical insights into the maritime undercurrents shaping global politics, economics, and environmental security.

Speakers:

J. Alex Tarquinio (host) is a resident correspondent at the United Nations in New York and co-founder of The Delegates Lounge podcast. @alextarquinio of @delegateslounge on X and @thedelegateslounge on Instagram. ‪

Michelle Wiese Bockmann (guest) is a maritime analyst and former longtime writer with Lloyd’s List, one of the world’s oldest continuously running journals. @Michellewb_ on X.

References:

Recent articles by our guest include this opinion piece in the Financial Times.

https://www.ft.com/content/7a89f7ae-cf3b-4e53-88bb-b87916f3eeef

Our host mentions in this episode that she interviewed Michelle for an article in The New York Times when the sanctions were relatively new.

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/07/15/business/energy-stock-market.html

Intro to 2nd part of Michelle Wiese Bockmann's Maritime analysis

J. Alex Tarquinio

Welcome to The Delegates Lounge. Pull up a chair. I'm Alex Tarquinio, a journalist based at the United Nations here in New York City and your emcee for this podcast featuring some of the most influential minds in the world today. Settle in for some riveting tete-a-tete, available wherever you listen to podcasts. Welcome back to the third episode of our new series, called "Undercurrents," about the oceans and seas that unite us and sometimes divide us.

Greek Prime Minister on Consequences of Threats to Seafarers

J. Alex Tarquinio

Today we're continuing our conversation with Michelle Wiese Bockmann, a maritime security analyst and former longtime writer with Lloyd's List, one of the world's oldest continuously running journals that has provided shipping news from London for centuries. This is the second part of our extended conversation with Michelle. In this episode, our conversation explores many of the most pressing threats to maritime security, including cable cutting, aerial and sea drones and piracy. Michelle sheds light on the suitability and effectiveness of the International Maritime Organization, a specialized agency of the United Nations, and the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea UNCLOS Ahead of next week's UN Ocean Conference to be held in Nice, the third such gathering focused on conservation efforts. She gives a bleak description of the failed efforts to decarbonize the global commercial shipping industry, which transports approximately 80% of international trade, as the Greek Prime Minister put it while chairing a UN Security Council debate about maritime security organized by his country

Greek Prime Minister

We should not disregard the need to enhance the protection and security of the two million seafarers who secure international maritime transport and uninterrupted operation of global trade. As an old maritime motto underlines, without them, half of the world would freeze and half of the world would starve.

Cable Cutting: The New Maritime Threat

J. Alex Tarquinio

Our conversation ends with Michelle's time living in Panama in the 1990s, where she covered the preparations for the handover of the Panama Canal. Here's our conversation. Michelle, you focused on global shipping for most of your career. Have you noticed an increase in risk factors, and are there certain risk factors that have moved into view that weren't really present early in your career?

Michelle Wiese Bockmann

Well, I think the big one now is the risk of cable cutting, sabotage, which we've seen in the Baltic. So there were three cases in the last 15 months. So the most recent one was a tanker called the Eagles that was detained by the Finnish authorities after it was found to have dragged its anchor for over 100 kilometers, severing a really important electricity cable linking Estonia, and some other communication cables as well were damaged. There was also a Chinese flagged bulk carrier that also damaged some cables. That was detained well, not really detained, but stuck in Danish waters for a while while the Chinese argued with the authorities there about whether they were responsible or not. And then there was another container ship, also Chinese-owned, that was order to try and deter and to keep a closer eye on those threats. So I think that's the big maritime security challenge in my area here in Europe.

J. Alex Tarquinio

What, if anything, can the maritime authorities do to try and prevent this or reduce the risk of cable cutting, to try and prevent it or reduce?

Michelle Wiese Bockmann

the risk of cable cutting. Well, it's really difficult to actually prove whether or not it's sabotage, which is why, in the three cases that I cited before, I think the Finnish authorities haven't really definitively made any charges. I think in the case of the first container ship, the new New Polar Bear, the Chinese have actually just recently charged the Swedish authorities that said you know, look, we really don't have enough evidence to say either way, because the Chinese allowed them to get on board the ship to conduct an investigation, but they didn't have proper access or full access in order to determine. So yeah, it's a really complex issue, and you're also seeing that with China and Taiwan. There have been some cable cutting incidents there as well. So that's a new threat, I think, to be watching.

J. Alex Tarquinio

Because of, obviously, geopolitical tensions. The Baltic Sea and the Taiwan Strait those are the two main areas of concern, but are there things they could do where the most sensitive cables are?

Michelle Wiese Bockmann

Well, interestingly, nato's deployed artificial intelligence to track vessels and to look for unusual activity over where the cables are. So that's something that's only started, I think, less than six months ago. So they're deploying those sorts of technologies to try and identify suspicious movements, but it's one of those things where you don't know until the damage is being done's fascinating because obviously, as artificial intelligence is growing exponentially, but of course it's more difficult because they're going to use these subterfuges and turn off their transponders.

J. Alex Tarquinio

Are there still ways they could I mean perhaps moderate with drones, so that if vessels are turning off their transponders, they can still track them and then use AI to anticipate these threats?

Michelle Wiese Bockmann

I don't know. And then this is one of the problems is that the illicit and deceptive shipping practices are so sophisticated and there's another form of vessel tracking called LRIT long-range identification tracking and that's only available to flag states. So mostly ships won't turn off their LRIT they used to not do it, but I think you know it's all bets are off when it comes to the Dark Fleet. So it is a challenge and in the case of the Eagle S, that was a Dark Fleet tanker that was involved in the Christmas Day event. That was a ship that I wrote about that actually had previously been equipped with spying equipment to spy on NATO. It had been taken off the ship before this event. But the Dark Fleet are kind of being we know are being used in many ways by Russian security to also serve a dual purpose.

Drones and Dark Fleet Operations

J. Alex Tarquinio

And speaking of drones, that's also a relatively new risk. Yeah, in the Red Sea, yeah, and it really was pioneered in the Ukraine war. That showed the effectiveness of sea drones in particular. The difference in cost between a drone and a cruiser is they could inflict a lot of economic pain for relatively little cost. But, as we saw recently, also aerial drones. There was the incident where Israel targeted a ship in international waters off of Malta with a drone strike, where Israel targeted a ship in international waters off of Malta with a drone strike. Is that a growing threat to the shipping industry and is that something that the industry is looking at, both in terms of state and non-state actors using drones with ever longer ranges?

Michelle Wiese Bockmann

Well, I think in the Red Sea not only are there drones, but there's also unmanned surface boats that come in laden with explosives and they just like sail straight through and I think for the first time you saw those used against merchant shipping by the Houthis.

J. Alex Tarquinio

That's almost like the old fire ship. I'm thinking of Nelson. They would use fire ships as just updated with new technology, but it's the same principle as the fire ships, right, yeah?

Michelle Wiese Bockmann

And terrifying for the crew. I've seen uh vision that's been taken from, you know, on the ship and just just awful. And you know some of the the technology that's being used against or was being used against, um, those, those ships that were, you know, people just doing their jobs, going from a to A to B with the ship, were awful.

J. Alex Tarquinio

I'm just thinking. In World War I and World War II there were convoys. Obviously the high seas aren't as dangerous as they were during the two world wars, but if drones become a bigger threat from either state or non-state actors, are cargo ships potentially going to need more protection against those threats?

Michelle Wiese Bockmann

I think one of the things you saw with the Red Sea is that there weren't enough naval assets in order to provide proper convoys for ships, which is why they decided that they were going to go around the Cape of Good Hope and not go through at all. And how much does that add in terms of cost to go around the Cape of Good Hope versus the Red Sea? Well, depending on the ship size, about a million dollars in extra fuel for a container ship that's going, say, from China through to Europe.

J. Alex Tarquinio

And presumably that cost eventually gets through to the consumers. Yes, it gets passed on to the consumer.

Michelle Wiese Bockmann

Yeah, but we were talking about security you just reminded me of that, yeah, but the other thing too is there weren't enough naval assets deployed in the Red Sea to provide convoys around the Gulf of Aden. There was a limited convoy system, but you know, it's very, very hard to provide that level of protection for all of the global fleet.

J. Alex Tarquinio

Yeah, you don't really hear about the Somali pirates anymore. And how did they reduce that threat? I mean, it's good to look at, I guess a success story from the point of view of maritime shipping, they put armed guards on board who shot pirates, to be blunt. So it's essentially the idea of the convoys just protecting the ships when they go through the most dangerous waters.

Michelle Wiese Bockmann

Well, the armed guards were deployed on the individual ships as they went through. Okay, and that was a deterrent. I think there were some very high-profile incidents where skiffs came for these ships to try and attack them and the armed guards shot them, and after a while, because every single ship in the area had armed guards. It was not possible because Somali pirates were quite unsophisticated compared to what the Houthis were doing. That's how the threat and there was some capacity building as well in Somalia, but ultimately that's how it was addressed.

Strategic Choke Points and UNCLOS

J. Alex Tarquinio

So that is, I guess, a rare success story at this point. What are some of the major choke points demonstrated in the evergreen episode block in the Suez Canal? I think that's when it really became clear to the general public at least.

Michelle Wiese Bockmann

Yeah, the Strait of Hormuz, which is where 20% of the world's oil goes through from the Middle East Red Sea. You've got the Baltic Sea as they come out through the Danish Straits and down through the English Channel. You've got Bosphorus, Black Sea into the Mediterranean, and Singapore-Malacca Straits. So they're the sort of key areas.

J. Alex Tarquinio

I did want to ask you also, though, about the UN Convention of the Law of the Sea, unclos, because we've been talking about drones and cable cutting, and UNCLOS was drafted before the widespread use of drones, and I guess there was the risk of cable cutting, but perhaps cables were not as important as they are now so.

J. Alex Tarquinio

does UNCLOS need to be updated to take into account these greater risks, or is it sufficient? Can it be used to address the risk of drones and cable cutting? Can it be used to address the risk of drones and cable?

Michelle Wiese Bockmann

cutting. Well, I think there's a lot of maritime legal debate about the suitability and effectiveness of UNCLOS and I don't really want to get into that debate. But I do note that because UNCLOS does provide ships with this right of innocent passage, it does make investigations into any suspected sabotage really difficult to undertake, and we've seen that in the three cases that I spoke about earlier in the Baltic. Not only do you have to be able to prove that it's sabotage, but you have to be able to interdict or intercept the ship. To be able to interdict or intercept the ship, and those provocative interpretations of UNCLOS have not been undertaken in any of the cases that I've mentioned as yet.

J. Alex Tarquinio

Is this the sort of thing you talked about in Malta?

Michelle Wiese Bockmann

Yeah, One of the problems with the IMO is that it's got 180-plus member states and it makes agreement by consensus.

Michelle Wiese Bockmann

So when the IMO met, like the legal committee met, for example, to talk about the dark fleet and the problems with, you know, fraudulent registries and false flagging and all of the geopolitical detritus that it has to sort out, it completely lost the plot and there was a working group established.

Michelle Wiese Bockmann

There was, you know it was a very fractious meeting. The outcome was watered down and really you found that countries divided along geopolitical lines. So those that want something to be done about fraudulent flagging and all of the deceptive shipping practices were usually, you know, western allies, and those that didn't want anything done were countries that were benefiting from cheap oil or actually shipping these commodities and their proxies. So you know, the IMO has become, you know it's become highly politicized. It wasn't a United Nations agency that was known for that, but over the last, you know, three or four years in particular, it has. So I wouldn't rely on the IMO to deal with these issues at the moment, because they're finding it hard enough to deal with decarbonization, let alone sorting out the problems that have arisen from the geopolitics under play now.

IMO Challenges and Politicization

J. Alex Tarquinio

Yeah, it sounds, unfortunately, like a lot of the United Nations at the moment. So you say it used to be less politicized and it has become more so. Is that in the last three years, with all the sanctions since Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine, or has it been going on for longer than that?

Michelle Wiese Bockmann

A little bit longer than that, I think it all started playing out. I mean, a lot of it is technical, important work and, you know, done by you know, specialists in their common but differentiated responsibilities. I can't remember the way that everyone….

J. Alex Tarquinio

And those that are benefiting from cheap oil and gas are less in a hurry, shall we say, to decarbonize the global shipping fleet.

Michelle Wiese Bockmann

Yeah. So the interventions on decarbonisation debates, you know you'll see. You know your Saudi Arabias and your United Arab Emirates stand up and have a particular view that aligns with the government. And you'll see Chinese government. You know the Chinese representative will have his view. And then you'll have Western views, western views and, and interestingly, um, the, the us, is playing. You know, for the first time at the legal committee, um actually stood up and their, their representative, said you know what we're not, we're not going to make interventions, we're not going to have anything to say, because we're reviewing all our policies and our silence does not necessarily mean we agree with anything. And then they stepped back and and stepped out and they didn't turn up at the IMO for the recent decarbonization debate. When did the US representative say that? So they didn't turn up to the MEC, the Marine Environmental Protection Committee.

J. Alex Tarquinio

And when and where was?

Michelle Wiese Bockmann

that that was in April. So they had a really key meeting in April to decide. But you said before that, oh that was the legal committee.

Michelle Wiese Bockmann

That was in March, and they stood up and they said we're here but we're not going to be saying anything. But just because we're not saying anything doesn't mean we agree with anything. And then that was the last we heard from them on the floor. And then for the next big meeting, which was the MEPC Marine Environment Protection Committee, they actually didn't even bother sending anybody to one of the most important debates that shipping had on the environment in literally decades.

J. Alex Tarquinio

Are these meetings all in London? I mean, that's where the IMO is. These are at the IMO. Obviously, you're really in the weeds.

Michelle Wiese Bockmann

In the weeds is the very good way to describe it.

J. Alex Tarquinio

Maybe I should say in the waves yeah, it feels like weeds. Seaweeds the seaweeds, that's good.

Michelle Wiese Bockmann

I'm going to borrow that.

J. Alex Tarquinio

I think you should absolutely use it from now on. Yeah, you came up with that, it was a state of play, but that's yours In the series. By the way, we have the UN Ocean Conference coming up and the US is not sending anyone to that Unsurprising, of course. That's dealing with things like deep sea mining, which obviously the Trump administration is interested in, but perhaps from the other side, also fisheries. You know, stocks of fisheries?

Michelle Wiese Bockmann

Yeah, the US at the IMO, I think, was once viewed as a safe and reliable old pair of hands. Once viewed as a safe and reliable old pair of hands, they had, you know, some very well-respected people that, would you know, represent the US and they're just not there anymore.

J. Alex Tarquinio

I mean, are they literally not there?

Michelle Wiese Bockmann

You think that some of the US hands Well, one guy retired, but certainly I've not gone and sort of strolled across the floor to do a meet and greet with the US delegation.

J. Alex Tarquinio

It's a different crowd, a whole new crew. So one person retired, some others may have been retired, not by choice, who knows Right. Well, another area, of course, deep sea mining and fisheries, obviously, that the Trump administration will be interested in from the other side. Another area I wanted to ask you about is the Arctic. Do we?

Arctic Shipping and Panama Canal Insights

J. Alex Tarquinio

have any idea. I mean, obviously there's a lot of change. I mean there may be new shipping lanes opening up soon thanks to global warming or caused by global warming. I don't know if we can thank it caused by global warming, I don't know if we can thank it. Do we have any idea when the northern route will be more viable year-round, At what point in the century, and are there special risks, both ecological and security, to that opening?

Michelle Wiese Bockmann

up. Well, I think it will only open up quote-unquote when it makes financial sense, and so there are only certain cargoes where the eight or nine day shorter voyage from Europe is going to make any sort of financial sense. And also, you have to remember that you're going through Russian waters and at the moment you also need to hire Russia-owned nuclear icebreakers to go with you, and so there's a cost there. So I think geopolitics may reduce the attractiveness of the route for a lot of northern European countries, but it may not reduce it, but it may increase the attractiveness for Russia-Chinese shipments, which I think is something to watch.

J. Alex Tarquinio

Right, and China has described itself as a near-Arctic nation, something that the members of the Arctic Council do not agree with, or at least those I don't know. Russia has taken a position on this, but the other members? I mean the US has expressed interest in this across both the Biden and Trump administration, because of course, biden announced that at NATO last summer that they would have an icebreaker agreement with Finland. Because of the, I mean most of the icebreakers in the Arctic are Russian.

Michelle Wiese Bockmann

Good luck with getting your Finnish-built nuclear icebreaker flagged in the US anyway, given all the laws that you're putting through at the moment, and then, secondly, getting it to enter Russian waters.

J. Alex Tarquinio

Clearly the Trump administration has an interest in that region and the shipping lanes in that region, whether that would really be possible or viable with the Russian. I mean it was the northeast and the northwest passage. I don't know if the northwest passage becomes more navigable.

Michelle Wiese Bockmann

There's a lot of LNG liquid natural gas projects that are partially developed by Russia in the Arctic as well, and that's obviously you know. One thing about Russia is that their Arctic shipbuilding and Arctic navigational skills are, you know, well-beating, and certainly until Russia invaded Ukraine, the government-owned ship-only company Sovconflot was regarded as a world leader in Arctic transits and Arctic transport.

J. Alex Tarquinio

Is this another concern, an ecological?

Michelle Wiese Bockmann

concern. A lot of it's dealt with at the IMI, but there are some issues with black carbon and the particular uses of fuel that are used on ships there. What is black carbon? So black carbon is their shipping emissions and they're very, very harmful. In the Arctic and there has been, you know, for the last five or six years, there's been debate at the Environmental Committee about how best to reduce black carbons, with various degrees of success.

J. Alex Tarquinio

Black carbon is a term, a term of art, of the shipping industry, but those are the emissions that come from the ship. Yeah, it's called black carbon. Into the air yeah, into the air or into the water, or both. Into the air. Into the air, okay, but the Arctic environment would, I guess, be more ecologically fragile. First of all, it is remote.

J. Alex Tarquinio

I mean that's part of the whole wonder and appeal in our imagination of the far north and it does have a certain romanticism to it. I mean even Generation Z likes the sea shanties. Yeah, I know they were popular for a time. Is that right? It's very atavistic, you know, drawing your livelihood, the fishes and the minerals from the sea, you know. Can you talk a little bit about what drew you to covering the maritime industry?

Michelle Wiese Bockmann

Well, I ended up in Panama with my then boyfriend, now husband. He was posted there as a Latin American correspondent for the ABC, the Australian Broadcasting Corporation. That was 30 years ago, and as a young freelance journalist who didn't speak any Spanish, I had to find a way of making a living very quickly and, of course, everyone spoke English in the shipping community. You had Panama Canal, the ports were being privatized, you had the Panama flag register, and so I just started freelancing for some global shipping titles, and then, when we got married in Panama, I went back to Australia. I had my titles, and then, when we got married in Panama, I went back to Australia, I had my twins, and then I got a job in Miami, actually as the America's editor for a shipping magazine called Fair Play.

J. Alex Tarquinio

That's no longer around, and that was that 30 years ago was very interesting in Panama because, while the agreement may have been struck by Carter in the 70s? Wasn't it actually the mid-90s? When exactly did it revert to Panamanian control?

Michelle Wiese Bockmann

So it went to Panamanian control, I think at the end of 1999.

J. Alex Tarquinio

And you were there in Panama as a freelance.

Michelle Wiese Bockmann

No, I left before the handover, but when I was there, the US had a military base there, but they were in the throes of handing over the Panama Canal, so the ports were being privatized. So the agreement that has caused so much controversy now with Hutchinson Port Holdings they had just won that concession when I was there. So that was something that was really interesting to write about.

J. Alex Tarquinio

Wait, Hutchinson Port Holdings. I don't know the year that agreement was struck. That was while you were there in the 90s, yeah.

Michelle Wiese Bockmann

They've been there for ages because they were selling off the ports back then and the privatization was part of the transition Fascinating.

J. Alex Tarquinio

And why do you think I mean other than, of course, the political, the change, the Trump administration? Why do you think it has become an issue now?

Michelle Wiese Bockmann

I think it's geopolitics, the way that the canal is structured, so there's a mile of land either way on each side of the canal that used to be US-owned, that was handed back and it's all open and the ports. There's no way you could take control of the canal. I mean it's just not physically feasible. I mean it's just one of the craziest ideas that I've heard in the maritime sector for a long, long time. Taking back the Panama Canal. I mean it functions really well. The Panamanian government they've had it for nearly what? 25 years and they've done a fantastic job. They've expanded it, they've maximized and increased tolls. But I mean it's their asset and they're entitled to do that. Just like the Suez Canal can control the canal.

J. Alex Tarquinio

Michelle, thanks for joining us in The Delegates Lounge. It is a fascinating conversation that I think will be of great interest to our listeners.

Michelle Wiese Bockmann

Thanks very much for having me, Alex, lovely to chat.

Frank Radford

And that's it from The Delegates Lounge. We'd like to thank our esteemed guests who've graciously allowed us to share their hard-earned insights into what really matters. And then there's you, our listeners, who we hope are sufficiently edified to clamor for more of the same. Do drop in for a weekly episode on Thursday, or from time to time if we're on the road, for special events, in which case there'll be a bonus episode. Subscribe wherever you listen to podcasts and if you like what you've heard, please take a moment to rate or review the show, as it helps others who share your abiding interest in world affairs to find their way to the delegates lounge. You can connect with us on many popular social media platforms or reach out to us directly at info the delegates loungecom. We're a small team so we can't respond to every message, but we will read them. Our show this week was written and produced by the host and by yours truly executive producer, Frank Radford. Until next time, keep calm and curious.